Avandia Decision Today; Steve Nissen Thinks It Will Stay on the Market

Word is that US and European regulators will make separate announcements shortly about the future of Avandia. The status of GlaxoSmithKline's former blockbuster diabetes drug is once again under review, thanks to concerns about a potential increased risk of heart attacks compared to other treatment options.

What will the decision be?

Cleveland Clinic cardiologist Steve Nissen, MD, thinks he knows the answer: FDA will leave rosiglitazone on the market.

That, to put it mildly, isn’t what Nissen thinks FDA should do. But, he tells us, that is what he now believes FDA will do.

One clear sign that FDA is likely to save Avandia, Nissen says, is the agency’s recent red flag for its thiazolidinedione competitor, Eli Lilly & Co.’s pioglitazone (Actos).

FDA announced on September 17 that it had commenced a safety review of Actos after receiving preliminary results from a long-term observational study designed to evaluate the risk of bladder cancer. The agency did note that the review is ongoing and it has not concluded that Actos increases the risk of bladder cancer.

Nissen calls FDA’s analysis “barely statistically significant” for what is essentially a small subgroup of individuals. The Actos review, Nissen says, is a “smokescreen designed and timed to keep rosiglitzone on the market.” (For coverage of the warning, click here).

Indeed, the timing of the Actos safety update is fortuitous for GSK. A key piece of the argument for pulling Avandia is the availability of a “safer” alternative, Actos. However, it would certainly be an odd decision for the agency to pull one product due to a potential increase in cardiovascular risk and recommend use of alternative that may or may not have an increased risk of bladder cancer.

Nissen, of course, has led the calls for Avandia’s withdrawal, and he is convinced that the agency’s actions with the product reflect ongoing challenges with handling post-marketing safety issues. In his view, it basically comes down to how FDA reacts to challenges from outside—and, by implication, the need for change in the drug center management.

[Editor’s Note: Nissen will expand on his views about the decision-making at FDA during The RPM Report’s FDA/CMS Summit for Biopharma Executives in Washington DC Dec. 9-10. For more information or to register, click here.]

Kate Rawson